When to Buy Your Next Car
By Philip Reed, Senior Consumer Advice Editor
Edmunds.com

In the eternal quest for a great car deal, it sometimes seems that buyers spend too much time trying to figure all the angles. A favorite topic to explore is this: when is the best time to buy a car?

There are as many theories on this topic as there are days in the year. And, oddly enough, there is a grain of truth to almost each one. Let’s run through the list and see what looks good.

Predictive TMV: Why guess? Let the pros tell you when to buy your next car. Edmunds.com’s car-buying experts have come up with a strategic way to determine the best time to buy a car. It’s called “Predictive” True Market Value (TMV) pricing and it forecasts the likelihood of a price change — whether prices are going up or down — of the current models available. Since many variables, such as incentives and prior transaction prices, can lead to a lower TMV price, this tool is a great way to determine the current pricing climate of the vehicle you are interested in. Also, be sure to check out Deals of the Month.

Rainy Days: The idea here is that if there are no other buyers on the lot, the salesman will offer a deep discount to get your business. Any truth in this? Yes, but there’s also a flip side. If you slog around a wet car lot, you’ll send the signal to the salesman that you really, really need a car today and he may push for a better price. So this one is probably a wash (so to speak).

Holiday Periods: Again, business is slow so you can get an early Christmas present from hungry dealers. There is probably some truth to this. Only problem is that dealers know that the holidays are coming and cut back on inventory. So, again, it cuts both ways.

15 Minutes Before Closing: Savvy buyers think that if they pop into the dealership 15 minutes before closing, the sales staff will want to go home and therefore won’t do the usual two-hour back-and-forth with the boss. This theory is pretty misguided. What they actually do is put up the closed sign, lock you in and keep dickering until midnight if necessary.

Early in the Week: A dealer once told us that car salesmen refer to the weekends as the “tuna run” — there are so many customers on the lot, you just pull them into the boat. If you try to stand firm on price, the salesman will just hook another tuna. So why not shop during the week, when there is less foot traffic on the lot and you can get the salesman’s undivided attention? After all, on a Monday or Tuesday, the tuna run seems like years away.

End of the Month: Now we’re getting somewhere. Dealers might be a car or two short of a quota that will give them a big bonus. They discount the car to you and make up the difference in their bonus.

End of the Model Year: As the new cars begin to arrive, last year’s model loses its luster and also its high price. There are some surprising discounts and often a lot of customer cash rebates. Be sure to check Edmunds.com’s Incentives & Rebates for customer cash rebates, low interest incentives and dealer cash.

End of the Car’s Design Cycle: The manufacturer is going to continue making a certain model car, but it is about to introduce a completely redesigned car under the same name. Now we’re seeing some serious discounts. True, you are buying a car that is essentially outdated and out of fashion, but some people are more bargain hunters than they are trendsetters. Here, the savings will be huge, especially for the buyer that trolls information from Edmunds.com’s Incentives & Rebates.

End of the Car’s Lifecycle: Sometimes the manufacturer announces that the car will be discontinued — forever. Now we’re talking off-the-charts savings. But there are two problems: you’ve got a car that will plummet in the depreciation category and you’ll have to keep fielding questions like, “Didn’t that car get the axe?” from friends and relatives.

Full Moon: Actually, we just threw this one in to prove our point. If you seriously thought there was a full moon discount, you are trying too hard to figure all the angles.

Really, the best time to buy a new car is when you need one and only after you have completed your research. Figure your price on the car using Edmunds.com’s TMV^® pricing and factor in the incentives and rebates. Then find a good salesperson and make your deal. That way you can concentrate on getting the car you want, rather than devoting your mental faculties toward trying to outfox the car salesman.